"We found employment will increase more rapidly in the suburbs over the next 25 years," said Bill Foisy of the Birmingham Regional Planning Commission.

The findings, reported in a commission study, are based on trends, known developments, local and state data, U.S. Census figures, the state economic development forecast and statistics from the private sector, Foisy said.

The study will be used to determine the 2030 transportation plan and traffic projections for Jefferson and Shelby counties.

Foisy said the study found that the population of Jefferson County will remain fairly steady through 2030. "But within the county there are radical changes in store, with jobs moving from the downtown core to the suburbs," he said.

Shelby County will see growth all over the county and a continued population explosion, Foisy said.

"We are watching the free market in action," said traffic planner Steve Ostaseski. "We are having to plan transportation after the growth and trying to anticipate where it is going. We don't have a crystal ball."

The demographic projections find that middle Shelby County, roughly from Alabaster to Calera along I-65, will have the largest percentage increase in the number of jobs. That number will grow from 1,745 in 2002 to just more than 8,000 in 2030, projections show, a 362 percent increase in jobs.

South Bessemer and the Oxmoor Valley along Lakeshore Parkway had 10,626 jobs in 2002. The number is expected to increase to just fewer than 22,500 in 2030, according to the study.

The Liberty Park area, defined by planners as the I-459 corridor from U.S. 280 to Interstate 59, will gain nearly 12,000 jobs, projections show, from 19,086 in 2002 to almost 31,000 in 2030.

Liberty Park is a mixed-use, 2,500-acre development off Interstate 459 including a gated golf community and office parks.

Job growth will continue in Birmingham, but it will not be as large as in the suburbs, according to the study. The Birmingham City Center area will see a job increase from 47,974 in 2002 to nearly 55,500 in 2030, the study predicts. Job increases are also forecast for Five Points South and UAB.

"We're gaining in jobs all over Birmingham, driven by financial institutions on one end and UAB on the other end," Ostaseski said. "We're now seeing people willing to come in and live in the city."

Lengthy commute:

A study this year by The University Transportation Center at the University of Alabama found that commuting patterns will be altered by the gain of jobs in the suburbs.

As jobs follow population increases to what are now sprawl areas, commuting times will decrease, the study's authors determined.

Sprawling bedroom communities gave Birmingham residents the third-longest average commute in the nation in 2001 - 34 miles round-trip.

Commercial development follows residential growth, Ostaseski said. "That's what happened in Hoover, and as the city developed from a bedroom community, it had more businesses."

As homes are built, retail business follows, creating more jobs. Such has been the case with Trussville, Ostaseski said.

The planning commission study found that the Pelham-Alabaster-Helena area will see substantial commercial development along U.S. 31 and I-65 because of the large amount of undeveloped land. The study predicts more than 15,000 new jobs in the area by 2030.

The study also found that the South Bessemer-Oxmoor Valley area, a prime area for retail corporate headquarters and technological and research facilities, will continue to grow in the number of jobs.

Other areas with large job gains projected by 2030 include:

Montevallo, because of residential growth.

Harpersville-Wilsonville, because of the cities' location on U.S. 280.

South Shelby near the Chilton County line, because of the growth in residential development.

Gardendale-Fultondale, because of the planned northern beltline to be completed in 2020.

Adamsville-Graysville, by the planned opening of Interstate 22 in 2012 and the northern beltline in 2020. "Those cities will get a double bonus," Ostaseski said.

Trussville, because of its location off I-59, its major residential and commercial areas and the northern beltline planned there.

Warrior-Sayre, because of construction of the northern beltline.