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The Birmingham News
"Shelby leads metro area growth"
Continued growth in Shelby County led the way to an increase of about 21,400 people in the seven-county Birmingham-Hoover metro area between April 2000 and July 2003, according to estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau on Thursday. Population increases in Shelby, St. Clair, Blount, Chilton and Bibb counties more than offset slight decreases in Jefferson and Walker counties. Jefferson County’s population fell by less than a percentage point, while Shelby’s grew by about 16,000 people in those three years. Shelby, at 11.3 percent, was the state’s leader in percentage of population growth and in total number of people. It was the 112th-fastest growing county in the country. Though the trend may seem disheartening for Jefferson County, it shows a natural change as people seek bigger homes in the suburbs, said Don Bogie, director of the Center for Demographic Research at Auburn University Montgomery. Migration patterns indicate many of the people who moved out of Jefferson County settled in one of the suburban counties. Overall in the Birmingham-Hoover metropolitan counties, 8,293 more people moved in to the metro area than moved out. In contrast, the Montgomery metropolitan area – which includes Montgomery, Autauga, Elmore and Lowndes counties – showed that 1,255 more people moved out of the region than moved in. “That’s not good,” Bogie said. “Montgomery is not well at all,” he said. “Birmingham may be different, because you’re keeping people in the area, so you can keep the economy strong.” David C. Adkisson, CEO and president of the Birmingham Regional Chamber of Commerce, said overall population growth in the metro area is positive, even if it is less impressive than rapid growth coursing through counties in Georgia. This rate during an economically challenged time is encouraging,” Adkisson said. “A lot of places are simply trying to hold on to what they have.” Still, it’s hard not to look with awe at the population explosion in Georgia, which boasts five of the nation’s 10 fastest-growing counties. Chattahoochee County, Ga., was the second-fastest growing county in the U.S., while Forsyth County north of Atlanta was fifth. Adkisson is not impressed with that growth. “I don’t find too many people in Birmingham who would want to be Atlanta,” he said. “The chamber is more interested in income growth than it is in population growth.” Higher pay levels would lure people to move into the area, and that sort of migration to find a better job is one of the sources of population change. Five of the seven Birmingham-Hoover metro counties had a net increase in population from migration, but Jefferson and Walker counties had more people moving out than moving in during 2000-03. The other source of population change is natural increase, which comes when the number of babies born exceeds the number of county residents who died. All seven metro-counties had a natural increase in population during 2000-03. All the factors combined in Shelby County’s growth. Shelby posted the lowest death rate in the state, the highest rate of migration and one of the highest birth rates. Traffic trends support Bogie’s theory that many Birmingham-Hoover residents have remained in the region even though many have left Jefferson County. On I-59 between Deerfoot Parkway and the Jefferson-St. Clair County line, the average weekday count of cars and trucks increased 18 percent from 1998 to 2002, according to data from the Regional Planning Commission of Greater Birmingham. During the same period, traffic increased 12 percent on I-20 near the Jefferson-St. Clair County line, 8 percent on I-65 near the Jefferson/Shelby County line, and 4 percent on U.S. 280 between the Jefferson/Shelby County line and Inverness Parkway. Adkisson also believes that traffic will one day play a role in reversing the trend of moving outward from the city. Gas prices could speed up that process. “Gas was inexpensive” during the rush to the suburbs, he said. “At some point gas prices will affect our lifestyles.”
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